Both polls tried to suggest a major dip in seats for Congress, though no significant gain for BJP either. In short neither UPA or NDA would be in a position to form the govt. The seat predictions made in the poll were extremely laughable.
We at FRIENDS OF CONGRESS strongly reject the surveys. While our rubbishing the surveys could be seen as one of a politically inconvenient response. But let us for a while go into the credibility of C-Voter and their track record in the past.
C-Voter has always had a history of significantly inflating seat projection for NDA & proving wrong every time.
2009 GENERAL ELECTION
Times of India Group : March 2009
UPA 201 (Congress 146), NDA 195 (BJP 138), Others 147
http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2009-03-06/india/27996737_1_alliance-arithmetic-upa-toi-estimate
India TV-CVOTER Exit Poll : 13 May 2009
UPA 189–201, NDA 183–195, Third Front 105–121
http://www.hindu.com/2009/05/14/stories/2009051457840100.htm
Actual Lok Sabha Election Result 2009
UPA 262 (Congress 206), NDA 159 (BJP - 116)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_2009
VARIATION: +30%, Predicted 60 Seats less for INC / UPA
2004 GENERAL ELECTION
Star News-CVOTER Opinion Poll: 3 May 2004
NDA 267-279, Congress+Allies : 169-181
http://www.hindu.com/2004/05/04/stories/2004050407690100.htm
Star News-CVOTER Exit Poll : 6 May 2004
NDA 270-282 , Congress+Allies: 167-179, Others: 87-99
http://www.rediff.com/election/2004/may/05exit.htm
Actual Lok Sabha Election Result 2004
UPA 218 (Congress 145), NDA 181 (BJP - 138)
VARIATION: -50%, Predicted 90 Seats more for NDA
2012 ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS
NewsX-CVOTER Poll Surveys
PUNJAB ASSEMBLY 2012:
Projection: Congress win with 42% of vote share against 31% of SAD-BJP.
Result:: Comfortable win by SAD-BJP
UTTAR PRADESH ASSEMBLY 2012:
Projection: BSP ahead with 27% votes followed by SP 25%
Result: Comfortable win by SP
CREDIBILITY & TRACK RECORD
The above analysis clearly establishes the credibility & track record of C-VOTER predictions. They have consistently gone wrong especially when it comes to General Elections with variations in the range of 30-50% (60-90 Seats)
It is high time, C-VOTER should get its stats right. India is too complex to decipher by surveying a few hundreds or thousand respondents. They need to understand Indian Voter first before making baseless predictions.
Till then we all know the right place of such surveys.
Compiled By : Friends of Congress (www.friendsofcongress.com)
Twitter: @friendscongress
Facebook: www.facebook.com/friendscongress
PS: Friends of Congress is an independent network of Friends & Well Wishers of Indian National Congress. It is in no way affiliated to the party in any official / unofficial capacity.
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